Friday, 29 May 2009

To what extent does an increase in population promote economic development?

Dear Upper Sixth-Formers,

The essays are marked and ready for collection.  Thanks for the extension!  I have written a model answer for you to consider below.  The most important thing is to plan and structure your answer first.  This was a 20 mark question so the examiners were looking for FOUR points, at least two of which contained some evaluation. 

More model answers are going to appear over the next week, so that you have plenty of material to help you revise for your unit 5 exam next Friday.

plan :  1) greater output = greater GDP might= economic development  EVAL:but depends on social infrastructure
2) greater labour force = cheap labour = more FDI   EVAL: but depends on workforce being educated and urbanisation
3) higher tax revenue from increased population EVAL this might not mean more ec development as govts could squander revenues
4)greater population might mean more poverty as more mouths to feed.

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Economic development means not only an increase in GDp but a rise in living standards.  Most economists agree that to measure economic development one must also look at levles of education, health, longevity and chances of surviving childhood.  Clearly in more developed economies more people means more workers which in turn could lead to better living standards.  This does depends on how this increased wealth is managed by the government.

If the increased population  leads to more workers then this will mean that there is an increase in GDP.  This increase in GDP is economic growth.  This in itself does not means that there is economic development.  Governments would have to ensure that part of that increase in GDP was spent on improving health services and improving the education system.  By improving healthcare facilities, people would live longer and be less prone to dying of disease.  By spending more on education future generations will be able to do better jobs with higher wages and this would be a sign of economic development.  This is what has happened in parts of Asia with a better educated workforce becoming more flexible.

A greater workforce and a cheaper workforce would make a country more attractive to foreign direct investment (FDI).  FDI is a quick and sure way to raise living standards - mostly.  some might argue that if foreign firms participate in a race to the bottom, ie locating in the lowest cost regions, such as Bangladesh, this will not raise living standards at all.  For a country to attract FDI, it must have a cheap workforce, which is living in the urban areas.  Urbanisation brings its own problems : overcrowding and the creation of shanty towns.  This might not lead to better living standards.

A major determinant of whether an increased population will lead to economic development hinges largely on not so much the increased tax revenues, but how that additional tax revenue is spent. Certain governments have a reputation to be venal, squandering any additional wealth on arms or corruption.  Clearly this will not aid economic development.

Lastly an increase in population might lead to a reversal in a country's economic development.  In rural Africa an increase in population just means more mouths to feed using the exact same resources.  Whilst there are potentially more workers on farms, there is little added to tradeable produce, much of it just being used to sustain the families living off the land.  Additional people put a strain on already over-strained health services.

To conclude, an increase in population can increase a country's economic development, but it does depend largely on how developed they are already.  If the additional populace are educated, able to work and live in urban areas, additional workers supply their labour cheaply can lead to more FDI and thus greater output.  Assuming the government is not corrupt and is able to spend the additional tax revenues on health and education, living standards will increase and those economies will develop.

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